Will It Be Good News When Inflation Peaks?

Real VisionMay 17, 2022
Neither pandemic nor war can keep down the American consumer, even as persistent inflation and supply-chain breakdowns continue to vex economists, policymakers, and financial media talking-heads. U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in April, and the figure for March was revised upward to 1.4% from 0.5%, data that reflect resilient demand. At the same time, industrial production was up a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in April, beating a consensus forecast of 0.5% and accelerating from 0.9% in March. U.S. equity indexes rallied on the solid economic data. But Vincent Deluard, Global Macro Strategist at StoneX, has concerns. Though he thinks we’ve reached peak inflation, he warns we could be stuck at a higher plateau for longer. “The CPI is caught in a tug-of-war between the cyclical basket, which is driven by energy, re-opening sectors, and supply chains, and the structural basket, which is driven by shelter, services, and wages. Due to base effects, cyclical dis-inflation should outweigh structural reflation until the end of the year.” Deluard joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the “transitory narrative” and how investors can and should position for the persistence of secular inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Mrt13y.
Get access to daily trading ideas, trending topics, interviews and more!
Please subscribe to Insider Tracking Advantage Ultra

Other Real Vision Videos

Real VisionJune 28, 2022
What Does Commodity Price Action Tell Us About the Economy?
The S&P 500 is down nearly 18% year to date, its worst first-half performance since 1970. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in 16 months in June, as inflation continues to extract its due. And Google searches for "recession" have reached a new high, according to Andreas Steno Larsen. “Typically,” he adds, “that only happens during actual recessions. Are we already in one, or is the risk overstated by now?” The fear of slowing growth now supplanting the fear of inflation, markets have fresh fuel to reprice assets across the risk spectrum. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Ash Bennington to talk about inflation, recession, and recent price action, including the particular pressure on convertible bonds. We also hear from Michael Gayed about an emerging counter-trend trade based on a correction for crude oil and commodities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3u7AgGV. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Gayed here: https://rvtv.io/3nnJefp.
What It's Like To Be an Emerging NFT Artist
How does an artist who got into NFTs only a year ago get featured on OpenSea twice and land a spot on the NFT NYC billboard? Step into the mind of up-and-coming NFT artist Camille Chiang as she talks about how she bootstrapped her way to success in the industry. Her collection, "WACK!," is an homage to her childhood in Hong Kong and is inspired by the everyday people she meets. In conversation with Matthew Kotek, Camille shares her plan to expand the "WACK!" brand into a fashion line. The recent bear market has not affected her timeline. Camille views this downturn as necessary to weed out artists simply riding the hype wave, and she hopes only creators driven by long-term vision will remain. Recorded on June 21, 2022.
Real VisionJune 28, 2022
It's All About the Business Cycle
Storm clouds are gathering, with rampant inflation driving a historic monetary tightening cycle that threatens economic growth while war rages in Eastern Europe. Are we now on course for a deflationary bust? Doubts about its abilities abound. But investors should be prepared for the outside possibility that the Federal Reserve nails the landing, says Michael Gayed. With cracks starting to show in the commodities market, the author of The Lead-Lag Report expresses some doubts about the sector, warning of the near-religious fervor that fuels its booms. Gayed, the chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, shares his brand of shrewd, contrarian perspectives with Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen. Amid tempests like these, keeping your ship steady and sailing in the right direction is a challenge. But the business cycle is inevitable. And it’s nearly impossible to time it perfectly. Recorded on June 24, 2022.

Get an Insider Tracking Advantage Ultra subscription for

  • Insider filing email alerts
  • Access to premium INK Research reports
  • Full access to weekly North America Top filer reports
  • and more including access to INK Ultra Money

Only $10.99 per month (plus tax)!