Will It All Add Up To a Global Recession?

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard isn’t ready to say inflation has peaked and at this point leans toward a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets next month. The central bank is fighting back against a market that’s already pricing in multiple rate cuts in 2023. But here’s the best way to think about when the Fed might “pivot,” according to Jared Dillian: “Remember, they don’t hike until things are cool. They hike until something breaks.” And there’s the political angle too: “Remember, the Fed still has to be seen doing something about inflation.” Jared joins Maggie Lake to talk about inflation in its domestic and global guises, what central banks can and will do to fight it, and whether we might be too bearish given all the bad news that’s already out there. We also hear from Rob Arnott about Wall Street inflation expectations and what, exactly, is fueling them. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO.

Raoul Pal finally welcomes Balaji Srinivasan for a long-in-the-making conversation about nation-states, the internet, the metaverse, cryptocurrency, and more… a lot more. You say you want a “deep dive”? Well, here are three hours of pure insight destined to be a Real Vision classic. Balaji and Raoul push us to think harder about and further into the future, not just to see what the world could be but also how we can shape what’s to come. The “network states” Balaji notes are already rising across the internet, and conditions are coiling in a way that makes proliferation of globalized communities aligned by shared mission and vision and organized by their own currencies virtually inevitable. And the final phase is recognition of a new form of nation-state. It’s at least as fascinating as it is mind-blowing, so profound you’ll need to set aside six hours to watch and absorb it. Recorded on August 11, 2022

The Nasdaq Composite is leading the major U.S. equity indexes higher today, as investors step into a tech-stock dip amid the traditional late summer volume lull. At the top of today’s Daily Briefing, Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen gets right to the point with Hedge Fund Telemetry founder Thomas Thornton: Who’s buying this tech dip? Scaling out from recent price action and a broader discussion of positioning, Andreas and Tommy talk about current economic data, including a decline in initial claims for unemployment benefits and an upside surprise from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s monthly manufacturing index for August. Andreas also asks Tommy about what looks like a pump-and-dump of Bed Bath & Beyond shares. And we hear from Rob Arnott about the risks of betting against bubbles. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO.